Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.4¢
- Implied chance
- 3.4%
- Return if right
- 2841.2%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 2941.2 shares at 3.4¢ each.
YES wins: $2941.18 back, a profit of $2841.18. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $2885.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.7¢
- Implied chance
- 96.7%
- Return if right
- 3.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 103.4 shares at 96.7¢ each.
NO wins: $103.41 back, a profit of $3.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX Stock Has Plunged 34%. Elon Musk's "Secret Master Plan" Points to What Could Come Next.Yahoo Finance · 7h ago
- Elon Musk Says This Is One of the Biggest Challenges for Public CompaniesYahoo Finance · 11h ago
- Elon Musk’s ambitious AI plans for SpaceX should be taken seriously, thanks to Microsoft, these analysts sayMarketWatch · 14h ago
- AOC says she hasn’t ruled out 2028 presidential run, talks about freezing her eggsNBC News · 1d ago
- Kevin O'Leary Sat Out SpaceX's IPO— Now He's Plotting His Entry as Elon Musk's Empire Takes Shape: 'As the Stock Settles... I'll Be Watching Closely...'Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Ecuador charges ex-minister over presidential candidate assassination caseBBC News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.