Will Ellen Pakkies be the next mayor of Cape Town?

Q: Will Ellen Pakkies be the next mayor of Cape Town?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 8.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1150.0% over 2.6mo.

Next Mayor of Cape Town?$804 liquidity$105 volumecloses 2.6mo

PoliticsCape TownElectionsSouth AfricaMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.0¢
Implied chance: 8.0%
Return if right: 1150.0%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $750.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 61%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 18, 10:22 PM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ellen Pakkies be the next mayor of Cape Town?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Cape Town’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Cape Town following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Cape Town City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.