Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Q: Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12400.0% over 4.7mo.

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?$11k liquidity$4k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsVenezuelamaduroTrumpHead of stateRewards 20, 4.5, 50

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.8¢
Implied chance: 0.8%
Return if right: 12400.0%
Spread cost: 31%

If you put in $100

You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.

YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5681.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $18081.82.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 46%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.55.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 01:41 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.