Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.5¢
- Implied chance
- 17.5%
- Return if right
- 471.4%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 571.4 shares at 17.5¢ each.
YES wins: $571.43 back, a profit of $471.43. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $248.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $719.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.1¢
- Implied chance
- 93.1%
- Return if right
- 7.4%
- Spread cost
- 47%
If you put in $100
You get 107.4 shares at 93.1¢ each.
NO wins: $107.41 back, a profit of $7.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Footage Shows Off a “Broken” Doctor DoomThe Hollywood Reporter · 3d ago
- New 'Avengers: Doomsday' trailer drops at D23 featuring Robert Downey Jr. and moreABC News · 3d ago
- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Trailer: Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom Faces Off Against Mister Fantastic, X-Men and Avengers With Army of SentinelsVariety · 3d ago
- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Tickets Put On Sale For All Theaters NationwideThe Hollywood Reporter · 3d ago
- Chris Evans Teases “Brutal” ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Storyline for Captain AmericaThe Hollywood Reporter · 7d ago
- Disney Predicts ‘Spider-Man’ Record Opening “Bodes Well” for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’The Hollywood Reporter · 12d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their openin…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized. If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.