Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.9¢
- Implied chance
- 2.9%
- Return if right
- 3348.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.
YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $123.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $3471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.3¢
- Implied chance
- 97.3%
- Return if right
- 2.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 102.8 shares at 97.3¢ each.
NO wins: $102.77 back, a profit of $2.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Directors Tease Hulk Return, Say More Secret Characters ComingThe Hollywood Reporter · 3d ago
- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Star Alan Cumming Says ‘I Don’t Fully Understand the Plot’ and Only Acted With Florence Pugh’s Stunt DoubleVariety · 4d ago
- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Co-Director Explains It’s ‘Very Difficult’ to Evolve Marvel Characters, but ‘We Need to Surprise Ourselves’ and ‘Audiences’Variety · 5d ago
- David Harbour on Starring Alongside ‘Creative Powerhouse’ Robert Downey Jr. in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and Reuniting With Millie Bobby Brown for New Netflix ShowVariety · 18d ago
- ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Has Already Made $50 Million in Pre-Sales, Three Months Before ReleaseVariety · 23d ago
- Andrew Garfield Hasn’t Seen ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Yet and Insists He’s Not in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’Variety · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their openin…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized. If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.