Will Draško Stanivuković be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?

Q: Will Draško Stanivuković be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 14185.7% over 1.8mo.

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?$14k liquidity$887 volumecloses 1.8mo

Main ElectionElectionsGlobal ElectionsBosnia and Herzegovina

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.7¢
Implied chance: 0.7%
Return if right: 14185.7%
Spread cost: 29%

If you put in $100

You get 14285.7 shares at 0.7¢ each.

YES wins: $14285.71 back, a profit of $14185.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5714.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $19900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 03:31 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.