Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 63.0¢
- Implied chance
- 63.0%
- Return if right
- 58.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.
YES wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $70.94.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 46.0¢
- Implied chance
- 46.0%
- Return if right
- 117.4%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.
NO wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $23.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $140.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Édouard Philippe58.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon38.0%
- François Hollande7.5%
- Gabriel Attal9.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann5.5%
- Dominique de Villepin4.5%
Latest: Aug 11, 11:44 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
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How this market resolves
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Other outcomes in Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
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