Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Q: Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 3.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3233.3% over 2.0mo.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026$500k liquidity$4.3M volumecloses 2.0mo

AwardsPoliticsGeopoliticsWorld

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.0¢
Implied chance: 3.0%
Return if right: 3233.3%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.

YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $56.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $3289.83.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.1¢
Implied chance: 97.1%
Return if right: 3.0%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 103.0 shares at 97.1¢ each.

NO wins: $102.99 back, a profit of $2.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.04.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 11:13 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.