Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?

Q: Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 7.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1328.6% over 4.4mo.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?$718 liquidity$6k volumecloses 4.4mo

PoliticsTrumpWorldGeopoliticsForeign Policy

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 7.0¢
Implied chance: 7.0%
Return if right: 1328.6%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $389.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $1718.18.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.0¢
Implied chance: 96.0%
Return if right: 4.2%
Spread cost: 28%

If you put in $100

You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.

NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.82.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 19, 04:41 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.