Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 13, 2026?

Q: Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 13, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 92%. A YES share costs 91.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 8.8% over 3d.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?$9k liquidity$2k volumecloses 3d

TrumpCulturePoliticsTrump Daily

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 91.9¢
Implied chance: 91.9%
Return if right: 8.8%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 108.8 shares at 91.9¢ each.

YES wins: $108.81 back, a profit of $8.81. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.95.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 10.0¢
Implied chance: 10.0%
Return if right: 900.0%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $104.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $1004.97.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 11:23 PM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.