Will Donald Trump Jr. be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.5¢
- Implied chance
- 9.5%
- Return if right
- 952.6%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 1052.6 shares at 9.5¢ each.
YES wins: $1052.63 back, a profit of $952.63. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $642.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $1594.92.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.7¢
- Implied chance
- 97.7%
- Return if right
- 2.4%
- Spread cost
- 62%
If you put in $100
You get 102.4 shares at 97.7¢ each.
NO wins: $102.35 back, a profit of $2.35. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Donald Trump Jr.5.9%
- J.D. Vance16.0%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene4.3%
- Vivek Ramaswamy27.3%
- Donald Trump29.8%
- Rand Paul30.0%
Latest: Aug 10, 06:25 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Donald Trump Jr. be the first listed Republican to anno…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
- Will Marco Rubio be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Ron DeSantis be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Glenn Youngkin be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
- Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?