Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Q: Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 9%. A YES share costs 8.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1023.6% over 1.4y.

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap$3k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.4y

IPOIPOsTechFinanceBusinesstechnology

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 8.9¢
Implied chance: 8.9%
Return if right: 1023.6%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 1123.6 shares at 8.9¢ each.

YES wins: $1123.60 back, a profit of $1023.60. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $294.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $1318.44.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.8¢
Implied chance: 94.8%
Return if right: 5.5%
Spread cost: 28%

If you put in $100

You get 105.5 shares at 94.8¢ each.

NO wins: $105.49 back, a profit of $5.49. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 05:43 PM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.