Will Democrats win exactly 16 House seats in New York in the 2026 midterm elections?

Q: Will Democrats win exactly 16 House seats in New York in the 2026 midterm elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 7.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1328.6% over 2.8mo.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?$8k liquidity$0 volumecloses 2.8mo

TrumpMidtermsPoliticsElectionsMidterm MOVUS Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 7.0¢
Implied chance: 7.0%
Return if right: 1328.6%
Spread cost: 37%

If you put in $100

You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $793.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $2122.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 57%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.71.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 05:29 PM1 further outcome not shown

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election. All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.