Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $85.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 47.0¢
- Implied chance
- 47.0%
- Return if right
- 112.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.
NO wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $117.39.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Firebrand GOP rep: Democrats side with Iran 'simply because they hate' TrumpFox News · 3h ago
- Democrats edge out, neck and neck with Republicans in 5 key Senate races: PollsThe Hill · 5h ago
- These companies look set to face high-profile hearings and other scrutiny if Democrats win the HouseMarketWatch · 10h ago
- Top Democrats battle over California's proposed billionaire taxABC News · 11h ago
- From Democratic insider to party exile: Lindy Li isn’t ruling out another run for CongressFox News · 11h ago
- In Texas, Talarico’s Strength in Senate Polls Inspires a Democratic DreamThe New York Times · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.