Will David Southwick be the next Premier of Victoria?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.7¢
- Implied chance
- 6.7%
- Return if right
- 1392.5%
- Spread cost
- 49%
If you put in $100
You get 1492.5 shares at 6.7¢ each.
YES wins: $1492.54 back, a profit of $1392.54. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1324.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $2716.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.6¢
- Implied chance
- 99.6%
- Return if right
- 0.4%
- Spread cost
- 89%
If you put in $100
You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.
NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 11, 06:43 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will David Southwick be the next Premier of Victoria?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: https://www.vic.gov.au/premier
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