Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%?

Q: Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 74%. A YES share costs 73.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 35.9% over 2d.

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (Small Brackets)$2k liquidity$2k volumecloses 2d

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesUS ElectionWisconsin PrimaryAugust 11 Primaries

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 73.6¢
Implied chance: 73.6%
Return if right: 35.9%
Spread cost: 0%

If you put in $100

You get 135.9 shares at 73.6¢ each.

YES wins: $135.87 back, a profit of $35.87. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 26.5¢
Implied chance: 26.5%
Return if right: 277.4%
Spread cost: 0%

If you put in $100

You get 377.4 shares at 26.5¢ each.

NO wins: $377.36 back, a profit of $277.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $278.07.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 12, 05:42 AM4 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.