Will David Amsalem win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?

Q: Will David Amsalem win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 8233.3% over 2.5mo.

Likud Party Primary Winner$9k liquidity$293 volumecloses 2.5mo

LikudIsraelPoliticsElectionsnetanyahuMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.2¢
Implied chance: 1.2%
Return if right: 8233.3%
Spread cost: 38%

If you put in $100

You get 8333.3 shares at 1.2¢ each.

YES wins: $8333.33 back, a profit of $8233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5000.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 60%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:12 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.