Will Daria Gosek-Popiołek win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?

Q: Will Daria Gosek-Popiołek win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 9%. A YES share costs 9.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1011.1% over 1.6mo.

Kraków Mayoral Election Winner$5k liquidity$130 volumecloses 1.6mo

KrakaoPolandKrakówMayoralPoliticsMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 9.0¢
Implied chance: 9.0%
Return if right: 1011.1%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $888.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.0¢
Implied chance: 99.0%
Return if right: 1.0%
Spread cost: 81%

If you put in $100

You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.

NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 04:22 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The Kraków mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 27, 2026, to elect the Mayor of Kraków, Poland. A runoff election is scheduled for October 11, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.