Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Q: Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Prediction markets currently price this at 80%. A YES share costs 80.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 25.0% over 1.2mo.

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner$12k liquidity$14k volumecloses 1.2mo

primary electionsHouse PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryMassachusetts PrimarySeptember 1 PrimariesUS Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 80.0¢
Implied chance: 80.0%
Return if right: 25.0%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 125.0 shares at 80.0¢ each.

YES wins: $125.00 back, a profit of $25.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.39.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 23.0¢
Implied chance: 23.0%
Return if right: 334.8%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.

NO wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $365.12.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Dan Koh78.5%

Latest: Aug 10, 10:54 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.