Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 29.0¢
- Implied chance
- 29.0%
- Return if right
- 244.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.
YES wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $257.14.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 73.0¢
- Implied chance
- 73.0%
- Return if right
- 37.0%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 137.0 shares at 73.0¢ each.
NO wins: $136.99 back, a profit of $36.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $38.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 9, 07:17 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- G7 countries to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil reservesNBC News · 7d ago
- Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levelsThe Guardian · 8d ago
- Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Diplomatic Hopes in the Middle EastYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Stocks Mixed as Crude Oil Prices and Financial Stocks FallYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Stocks Supported as Crude Oil Prices EaseYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Crude Oil Three Rallies Before the FallYahoo Finance · 18d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html