Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 98.7¢
- Implied chance
- 98.7%
- Return if right
- 1.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 101.3 shares at 98.7¢ each.
YES wins: $101.32 back, a profit of $1.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.37.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 1.4¢
- Implied chance
- 1.4%
- Return if right
- 7042.9%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 7142.9 shares at 1.4¢ each.
NO wins: $7142.86 back, a profit of $7042.86. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $264.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $7307.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 07:18 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- What do Clacton voters want from their next MP?BBC Politics · 2d ago
- Badenoch pens letter to Clacton ahead of by-electionBBC Politics · 3d ago
- The serial candidates standing against Farage in the Clacton by-electionBBC Politics · 4d ago
- No joke: Britain might be about to elect 'novelty' candidate Count BinfaceThe Hill · 4d ago
- Ballot paper for Clacton by-election is longest in British electoral historyBBC Politics · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-electi…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
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