Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Q: Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Prediction markets currently price this at 6%. A YES share costs 5.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1685.7% over 2.7mo.

MLB: 2026 American League Champion$79k liquidity$731k volumecloses 2.7mo

World SeriesAmerican LeaguebaseballMLBSportspennant

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.6¢
Implied chance: 5.6%
Return if right: 1685.7%
Spread cost: 1%

If you put in $100

You get 1785.7 shares at 5.6¢ each.

YES wins: $1785.71 back, a profit of $1685.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $1701.80.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 94.5¢
Implied chance: 94.5%
Return if right: 5.8%
Spread cost: 1%

If you put in $100

You get 105.8 shares at 94.5¢ each.

NO wins: $105.82 back, a profit of $5.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:19 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Mets moneyline bet makes sense as Foster Griffin faces first start with Cleveland GuardiansFox News · 4d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Champi…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.