Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.4¢
- Implied chance
- 5.4%
- Return if right
- 1751.9%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 1851.9 shares at 5.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1851.85 back, a profit of $1751.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1481.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $3233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.4¢
- Implied chance
- 99.4%
- Return if right
- 0.6%
- Spread cost
- 80%
If you put in $100
You get 100.6 shares at 99.4¢ each.
NO wins: $100.60 back, a profit of $0.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 08:21 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ted Cruz battles 'The View' on Clarence Thomas and affirmative action, as host says 'Welcome to being Black'Fox News · 15d ago
- James Clyburn says supporting Clarence Thomas for supreme court ‘was mistake’The Guardian · 24d ago
- Jim Clyburn regrets supporting Clarence Thomas' SCOTUS appointment, calling it a 'mistake'Fox News · 24d ago
- Clarence Thomas scorches racial litmus tests policing thought: ‘Stay Black and die’Fox News · 1mo ago
- Clarence Thomas thanks Cruz for defending him against ethics complaintsThe Hill · 1mo ago
- Clarence Thomas chokes up as he reveals promise he made after grandparents’ sudden deathsFox News · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by September 30…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.