Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

Q: Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

Prediction markets currently price this at 22%. A YES share costs 22.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 354.5% over 1.5mo.

Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?$16k liquidity$6k volumecloses 1.5mo

UKPoliticsElectionsIsle of ManMain ElectionUnited Kingdom

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 22.0¢
Implied chance: 22.0%
Return if right: 354.5%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.

YES wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $33.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $387.80.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 81.0¢
Implied chance: 81.0%
Return if right: 23.5%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.

NO wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $25.79.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 02:29 PM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.