Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 0–5%?

Q: Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 0–5%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 29%. A YES share costs 29.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 244.8% over 7d.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory$50 liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesUS ElectionSenate PrimaryMargin of Victory

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 29.0¢
Implied chance: 29.0%
Return if right: 244.8%
Spread cost: 55%

If you put in $100

You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.

YES wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $300.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 89%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 1, 09:06 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate pr…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.