Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.8¢
- Implied chance
- 2.8%
- Return if right
- 3471.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 3571.4 shares at 2.8¢ each.
YES wins: $3571.43 back, a profit of $3471.43. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $132.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $3603.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.