Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.6¢
- Implied chance
- 3.6%
- Return if right
- 2677.8%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 2777.8 shares at 3.6¢ each.
YES wins: $2777.78 back, a profit of $2677.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $120.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $2798.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.7¢
- Implied chance
- 96.7%
- Return if right
- 3.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 103.4 shares at 96.7¢ each.
NO wins: $103.41 back, a profit of $3.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Taiwan: Home of semiconductor giants at the centre of AI raceFrance 24 · 8h ago
- AI and Taiwan: What to expect from Trump's meeting with China's Xi JinpingCBS News · 8h ago
- First Thing: Trump welcomes Xi to Washington amid tensions over trade, AI and TaiwanThe Guardian · 9h ago
- Trump-Xi summit live: Trade, AI, Iran and Taiwan top US-China talksAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Rep. John Moolenaar says U.S. has "responsibility to help Taiwan defend itself" before Xi visitCBS News · 23h ago
- Rubio: Taiwan arms sales constrained by US needs, industrial baseThe Hill · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.