Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.5¢
- Implied chance
- 0.5%
- Return if right
- 19900.0%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 20000.0 shares at 0.5¢ each.
YES wins: $20000.00 back, a profit of $19900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8571.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $28471.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 01:36 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
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