Will CDU win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Q: Will CDU win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 14%. A YES share costs 14.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 614.3% over 30d.

Berlin State Election: 4th Place$9k liquidity$56 volumecloses 30d

GermanyPoliticsElectionsWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 14.0¢
Implied chance: 14.0%
Return if right: 614.3%
Spread cost: 36%

If you put in $100

You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.

YES wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $338.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 95.0¢
Implied chance: 95.0%
Return if right: 5.3%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.

NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 22, 03:12 AM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)