Will Carlos Jararaca win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 31.0¢
- Implied chance
- 31.0%
- Return if right
- 222.6%
- Spread cost
- 54%
If you put in $100
You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.
YES wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $265.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $488.24.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 85%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $20.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Carlos Jararaca17.0%
- Cadu de Lula34.5%
- Rodrigo Bolsonaro18.0%
- Henrique Lyra12.5%
- Dário Barbosa16.0%
- Álvaro Dias25.0%
Latest: Aug 17, 09:04 PM3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Other outcomes in Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner
- Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Henrique Lyra win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Professor Roberio Paulino win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
- Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?