Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
NO wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $140.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Cooling Inflation Creates a Buying Opportunity in the Canada DollarYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Arrow Exploration buys into Canada with $8.9 million Alberta oil dealYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- After 2 Plasma Donor Deaths, Company Pauses Clinics in CanadaThe New York Times · 2d ago
- Dan Aykroyd details 'medieval times' reality of California while praising life in CanadaFox News · 2d ago
- Dan Aykroyd details 'medieval times' reality of California while praising life in Canada without warFox News · 2d ago
- Berrington & Robertson star as Scotland crush CanadaBBC Sport · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on r…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.