Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 73.0¢
- Implied chance
- 73.0%
- Return if right
- 37.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 137.0 shares at 73.0¢ each.
YES wins: $136.99 back, a profit of $36.99. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $37.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 28.0¢
- Implied chance
- 28.0%
- Return if right
- 257.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.
NO wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $263.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 25, 06:28 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- California passes local journalism lifeline bill amid "catastrophic collapse"CBS News · 9h ago
- Why California Was Willing to Cave to ParamountThe Hollywood Reporter · 10h ago
- California superintendent candidate ejected from sports league meeting for boisterous Title IX defenseFox News · 11h ago
- California Supreme Court rules sheriff who ran for governor must return seized ballotsThe Hill · 12h ago
- California sheriff unlawfully seized ballots, state Supreme Court rulesCBS News · 12h ago
- California sheriff ordered to return ballots he confiscated in voter ‘fraud’ inquiryThe Guardian · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count even if the NCAA recognizes them as such. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NCAA and conference records (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.