Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 21.0¢
- Implied chance
- 21.0%
- Return if right
- 376.2%
- Spread cost
- 31%
If you put in $100
You get 476.2 shares at 21.0¢ each.
NO wins: $476.19 back, a profit of $376.19. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $168.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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How this market resolves
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.