Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1448.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $3348.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.2¢
- Implied chance
- 99.2%
- Return if right
- 0.8%
- Spread cost
- 73%
If you put in $100
You get 100.8 shares at 99.2¢ each.
NO wins: $100.81 back, a profit of $0.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Donalds 20–25%2.9%
- Donalds 40%+45.0%
- Collins wins0.4%
- Donalds 10–15%1.7%
- Donalds 25–30%3.5%
- Donalds 5–10%2.6%
Latest: Aug 17, 03:37 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- This week on The Hill: Florida governor’s race, embattled lawmakers to take spotlightThe Hill · 7h ago
- Crowded Florida Race Puts Trump’s Clout to TestBloomberg · 15h ago
- Florida sets record for sea turtle nests but Trump move could stall recoveryThe Guardian · 16h ago
- Florida man on probation allegedly kills and dismembers stepfather, stuffs body parts in suitcasesFox News · 17h ago
- Florida primary fight marks DSA's last standThe Hill · 18h ago
- Florida middle school teacher admits to years of 'inappropriate' conversations with former student: deputiesFox News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor prima…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Other outcomes in Florida Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory
- Will Jay Collins win the Florida Republican Governor primary?
- Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Governor primary?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by less than 5%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 10–15%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 15–20%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 25–30%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%?
- Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?