Will Brian Lumsden win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?

Q: Will Brian Lumsden win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2531.6% over 2.1mo.

Peterborough, ON Mayoral Election Winner$8k liquidity$0 volumecloses 2.1mo

CanadaPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionWorld ElectionsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.8¢
Implied chance: 3.8%
Return if right: 2531.6%
Spread cost: 36%

If you put in $100

You get 2631.6 shares at 3.8¢ each.

YES wins: $2631.58 back, a profit of $2531.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1450.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3981.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.9¢
Implied chance: 98.9%
Return if right: 1.1%
Spread cost: 56%

If you put in $100

You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.

NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.51.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 24, 09:26 PM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 2026 Peterborough, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Peterborough, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Peterborough, Ontario.