Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?

Q: Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 44%. A YES share costs 44.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 127.3% over 5.0mo.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026$2k liquidity$12k volumecloses 5.0mo

BrazilCPIInflationWorldEconomyIPCA

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 44.0¢
Implied chance: 44.0%
Return if right: 127.3%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.

YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.36.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 56.8¢
Implied chance: 56.8%
Return if right: 76.1%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 176.1 shares at 56.8¢ each.

NO wins: $176.06 back, a profit of $76.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $77.30.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 11:15 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html