Will Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 14.0¢
- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Return if right
- 614.3%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.
YES wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $54.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $669.23.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.94.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Jeff’s Bagel Run Awards 10-Unit Deal to Grow in Eastern and South Central PennsylvaniaYahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Pennsylvania school bus aide accused of sexually assaulting special needs teenFox News · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Penn…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A special election is currently scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the 12th district seat in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/.