Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Q: Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 13%. A YES share costs 13.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 669.2% over 2.5mo.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner$25k liquidity$34k volumecloses 2.5mo

PoliticsCanadaTorontoElectionsGlobal ElectionsMayoral Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 13.0¢
Implied chance: 13.0%
Return if right: 669.2%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.

YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $700.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 88.0¢
Implied chance: 88.0%
Return if right: 13.6%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.

NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 09:03 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.