Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 12?

Q: Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 12?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 7592.3% over 14h.

What price will Bitcoin hit on August 12?$8k liquidity$6k volumecloses 14h

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.3¢
Implied chance: 1.3%
Return if right: 7592.3%
Spread cost: 43%

If you put in $100

You get 7692.3 shares at 1.3¢ each.

YES wins: $7692.31 back, a profit of $7592.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5641.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.8¢
Implied chance: 99.8%
Return if right: 0.2%
Spread cost: 73%

If you put in $100

You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.

NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 02:01 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on August 12?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.