Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?

Q: Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 19900.0% over 8.7mo.

Next French Presidential Election$271k liquidity$2.1M volumecloses 8.7mo

French ElectionMain ElectionFranceWorldPoliticsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.5¢
Implied chance: 0.5%
Return if right: 19900.0%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 20000.0 shares at 0.5¢ each.

YES wins: $20000.00 back, a profit of $19900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2222.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.6¢
Implied chance: 99.6%
Return if right: 0.4%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.

NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Bernard Cazeneuve0.4%

Latest: Aug 10, 05:21 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).