Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?

Q: Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?

Prediction markets currently price this at 66%. A YES share costs 66.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 51.5% over 8d.

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner$2k liquidity$13k volumecloses 8d

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesdeprec USA ElectionHouse PrimaryFlorida Primary

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 66.0¢
Implied chance: 66.0%
Return if right: 51.5%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 151.5 shares at 66.0¢ each.

YES wins: $151.52 back, a profit of $51.52. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 43.0¢
Implied chance: 43.0%
Return if right: 132.6%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 232.6 shares at 43.0¢ each.

NO wins: $232.56 back, a profit of $132.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 04:13 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.