Will Austin Magee be the Republican nominee for LA-05?

Q: Will Austin Magee be the Republican nominee for LA-05?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 2.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3348.3% over 1.3mo.

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner$9k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.3mo

PrimariesPoliticsLouisiana PrimaryUS ElectionElectionsprimary elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.9¢
Implied chance: 2.9%
Return if right: 3348.3%
Spread cost: 46%

If you put in $100

You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.

YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2801.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $6150.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 81%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 04:19 AM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Austin Magee be the Republican nominee for LA-05?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.