Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
YES wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $37.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $112.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 63.0¢
- Implied chance
- 63.0%
- Return if right
- 58.7%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.
NO wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $29.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $88.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale47.5%
- Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko12.5%
- Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu30.5%
- Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen3.5%
- Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai13.0%
- Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu4.0%
Latest: Sep 1, 07:09 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Other outcomes in Falealili 1 By-Election Winner
- Will Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai win the Falealili 1 by-election?
- Will Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko win the Falealili 1 by-election?
- Will Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea win the Falealili 1 by-election?
- Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?
- Will Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen win the Falealili 1 by-election?
- Will Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu win the Falealili 1 by-election?