Will Ataides de Oliveira win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?

Q: Will Ataides de Oliveira win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 40%. A YES share costs 40.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 150.0% over 1.5mo.

Tocantins Governor Election Winner$47 liquidity$3 volumecloses 1.5mo

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 40.0¢
Implied chance: 40.0%
Return if right: 150.0%
Spread cost: 59%

If you put in $100

You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.

YES wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $215.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $365.12.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.0¢
Implied chance: 97.0%
Return if right: 3.1%
Spread cost: 89%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $24.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.39.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 18, 01:44 AM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).