Will Arturo Ávila Anaya win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?

Q: Will Arturo Ávila Anaya win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 6.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1349.3% over 9.9mo.

Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner$10k liquidity$87 volumecloses 9.9mo

MexicoPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 6.9¢
Implied chance: 6.9%
Return if right: 1349.3%
Spread cost: 44%

If you put in $100

You get 1449.3 shares at 6.9¢ each.

YES wins: $1449.28 back, a profit of $1349.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1050.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $2400.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.9¢
Implied chance: 98.9%
Return if right: 1.1%
Spread cost: 73%

If you put in $100

You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.

NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.17.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 11:04 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Aguascalientes on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Aguascalientes and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Aguascalientes and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.