Will Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Q: Will Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 4.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2225.6% over 2.8mo.

Closest Governor's Race?$10k liquidity$259 volumecloses 2.8mo

SenateMidtermsPoliticsdepec us elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.3¢
Implied chance: 4.3%
Return if right: 2225.6%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 2325.6 shares at 4.3¢ each.

YES wins: $2325.58 back, a profit of $2225.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1841.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.5¢
Implied chance: 99.5%
Return if right: 0.5%
Spread cost: 80%

If you put in $100

You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.

NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:25 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Arizona have the closest Governor's race in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.