Will ARENA win the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.4¢
- Implied chance
- 0.4%
- Return if right
- 24900.0%
- Spread cost
- 38%
If you put in $100
You get 25000.0 shares at 0.4¢ each.
YES wins: $25000.00 back, a profit of $24900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15000.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 60%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 04:14 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Salvadorans with TPS don’t know how long their protections will lastNBC News · 18d ago
- Trump administration allows TPS to continue for Salvadorans – for nowNPR · 24d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will ARENA win the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legisla…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. Notwithstanding the above, if candidates from two or more parties run on the same list, each seat won by that list will be counted toward the party to which the elected candidate belongs. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).
Source: https://www.tse.gob.sv/
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