Will Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 14.4¢
- Implied chance
- 14.4%
- Return if right
- 594.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 694.4 shares at 14.4¢ each.
YES wins: $694.44 back, a profit of $594.44. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $616.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.5¢
- Implied chance
- 86.5%
- Return if right
- 15.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 115.6 shares at 86.5¢ each.
NO wins: $115.61 back, a profit of $15.61. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.21.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 07:29 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kur…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Kurultai of Kazakhstan are scheduled to take place on August 23, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-most number of seats in the Kurultai of Kazakhstan as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Kazakh government.
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