Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 58.0¢
- Implied chance
- 58.0%
- Return if right
- 72.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.
YES wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $73.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 43.0¢
- Implied chance
- 43.0%
- Return if right
- 132.6%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 232.6 shares at 43.0¢ each.
NO wins: $232.56 back, a profit of $132.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $135.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 11:49 AM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
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