Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 97.3¢
- Implied chance
- 97.3%
- Return if right
- 2.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 102.8 shares at 97.3¢ each.
YES wins: $102.77 back, a profit of $2.77. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 2.8¢
- Implied chance
- 2.8%
- Return if right
- 3471.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 3571.4 shares at 2.8¢ each.
NO wins: $3571.43 back, a profit of $3471.43. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $64.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $3536.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.