Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 53.0¢
- Implied chance
- 53.0%
- Return if right
- 88.7%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 188.7 shares at 53.0¢ each.
YES wins: $188.68 back, a profit of $88.68. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $124.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 64.0¢
- Implied chance
- 64.0%
- Return if right
- 56.3%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 156.3 shares at 64.0¢ each.
NO wins: $156.25 back, a profit of $56.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $23.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $80.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Apple back-to-school sale: Save up to 34% on Macbooks, AirPods and moreNBC News · 1d ago
- Apple tests CXMT Chinese memory chips for iPhones, MacBooksYahoo Finance · 3d ago
- Apple tests China's CXMT memory chips for iPhones and MacBooks, WSJ reportsYahoo Finance · 4d ago
- Apple’s selling refurbished MacBook Neos with a $100 discountThe Verge · 8d ago
- The global memory shortage hits the MacBook AirTechCrunch · 11d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a MacBook with a touchscreen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a MacBook with a touchscreen by Apple will only count if it is explicitly branded a MacBook. For example, an iMac will not qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". A qualifying touchscreen must be a true screen; a touch bar will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.